Am I better off buying a box of cards with guaranteed unknown hits or to spend the same amount on a player break of a full case?
Donruss 2018 boxes run $90ish shipped. A hobby box boasts 3 hits (auto or relic) per box. Hobby Legends was running a player break on ebay for each player with a card in the set having its own auction. I foolishly scooped up a LARGE list of players at different prices but setting a personal budget for my total and a budget for each player. I only bid on players I wanted and then filled in gaps with players ending under $3 that fell into trade partner categories. Here is the list of my purchases.Players I went for:
JaCoby Jones - Tigers 2.50
Jeimer Candelario - Tigers 2.77
Joe Carter - Indians 13.50!
Michael Fulmer - Tigers 3.75
Miguel Sano - Twins 9.46!
Roberto Alomar - Indians 4.25
Nick Castellanos - Tigers 2.86
Ted Giannoulus - Chicken 5.51!
Fill Ins:
Archie Bradley - D'Backs .99
Ryley Gilliam - USA 2.51
Daniel Alvarez - Orioles .99
Elvis Andrus - Rangers .99
Braden Shipley - D'Backs 2.01
Tony LaRussa - A's 4.76!
Raimel Tapia - Rockies 1.29
Travis Shaw - Brewers 1.84
Adrian Gonzalez - Dodgers .99
Elias Diaz - Pirates 1.88
Mac Williamson - Giants 2.26
Robbie Ray - D'Backs 2.26
Cole Hamels - Rangers 1.83
Joe Musgrove - Astros 3.61
Kevin Kiermaier - Rays 2.14
Aaron Altherr - Phillies .99
Tyler Glasnow - Pirates 3.25
Total with shipping $82.18, just a little shy of the price of one box.
Keep in mind a few things. First, I researched on BreakNinja.com what cards each player had and only bid up to $1.26 for players with only base, $3.50 for players with relic/autos, and a little higher in some cases for guys like LaRussa, Musgrove, and Glasnow who I wouldn't mind having a hit from and see they have high probability of hitting. Also, look at some of the prices with ! after them. Those auctions I got into a bidding war and paid more than I wanted to. The same thing happened with Alan Trammell and Al Kaline who both went for double the price of one of their hits would retrieve on ebay. Also, the seller combines shipping for a one time payment of $2.99. I can tell you the package that arrived to my house cost 10X that to ship.
Results:
I ended up with 7 hits instead of just 3 had I bought a box. I did not get the high dollar guys I wanted hits from but did pull quite a few prospects. There is some numbered stuff and variations in there too. Overall, I ended up better off than buying a box. I had some, though very little, but still some control over who the hits were. A full case offers 16 boxes per case. I saw a full rainbow of Otani come out. I wish Carter, Sano, Giannoulus or LaRussa would have hit for something to add to my PC but I did pretty well. Hobby Legends as always was terrific during the break, everything shipped super fast and safe, I have single box breaks I bought into the week before this one that haven't shipped yet, and they tossed in two packs of penny sleeves. Please, if you are wanting to try this method of chasing hits over buying boxes do your research. There is a reason I chose each player and paid certain amounts. I used BreakNinja and watched a few case breaks while taking notes before bidding. You don't want to bid up a player and then later find out they don't have any hits in the set. It is all chance. Over $30 of what I spent was only on 4 or 5 guys that I got no hits from in the entire case even though they have a ton of hits in the set. I could have just bought their cards on ebay for that price probably. While 2 auto/relic Musgrove cards for a $3.61 bid is a win, having not a single card to show for paying $13.50 for Joe Carter is painful or a Sano #'ed /199 and 16 base cards for $9.46.Here is the haul:
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| I got 2 of these! |
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| /99 pic borrowed from ebay as I gave the card to my brother |
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| /199 pic borrowed from Ebay as I gave to my brother |
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| /99 |
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| I got 2 of these /303 |
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| #'ed /49 I had to win a quick random for this against the idiot who paid way too much for Miggy. |
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| /199 |
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| Blank Back variation. |
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| /500 |
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| /199 |
And the base...
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| 33 Fulmer |
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| 14 Ray |
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| 13 Andrus |
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| 8 Casty split with whoever had Cabrera. This is Nick's only card in the set. |
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| 13 Altherr |
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| 12 Chicken |
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| 16 Sano |
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| 29 Hamels, 17 variation |
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| 14 Shaw |
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| 43 Alomars, 12 say Robbie, 31 Say Roberto |
This certainly wouldn't be something that I would partake in, but it still makes for good reading/viewing. And I'm kind of surprised to see that Joe Carter is still popular enough to warrant a bidding war.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Not sure if I'd do this, something I've done in the past is do a reverse box break where I allot myself the money for a price of a box ($90) and buy singles I'd want for my collection. If I decided to do this with 2018 Donruss, I'd probably target a Chicken relic or autograph.
ReplyDeleteThat was a pretty cool idea! I've done a few player-only breaks with mixes results.
ReplyDeleteI have done a few "player breaks" in the past. I would never pay more than $3 a spot because I am only expecting base and inserts. Only time I open a box myself is if I actually want to complete the set-- never in hopes of getting a high-end hit.
ReplyDeleteI look at box breaking as gambling now; The house (Panini or Topps) always wins.
Congrats on your haul!
I've never done a player break and only a box break a couple of times. I've cut way back on box spending instead using those fund to pick up only the cards I would've most want from the boxes. I've spent much less per release this way. You picked up some good cards here. I was disappointed in Donruss this year. Base and DKs were pretty bland for my tastes.
ReplyDeleteI have frequently participated in player breaks since 2015 and definitely recommend them for single player collectors as well as those who are willing to really still down into th the checklist for value spots. If you are not collecting the top tier guys player breaks can be a much more affordable break option than full team breaks.
ReplyDelete