Full Case Player Break -vs- Buying a Box; the Great Experiment to get the most bang for you buck.

Am I better off buying a box of cards with guaranteed unknown hits or to spend the same amount on a player break of a full case?

Donruss 2018 boxes run $90ish shipped. A hobby box boasts 3 hits (auto or relic) per box. Hobby Legends was running a player break on ebay for each player with a card in the set having its own auction. I foolishly scooped up a LARGE list of players at different prices but setting a personal budget for my total and a budget for each player. I only bid on players I wanted and then filled in gaps with players ending under $3 that fell into trade partner categories. Here is the list of my purchases.

Players I went for:

JaCoby Jones - Tigers    2.50
Jeimer Candelario - Tigers   2.77
Joe Carter - Indians   13.50!
Michael Fulmer - Tigers   3.75
Miguel Sano - Twins   9.46!
Roberto Alomar - Indians   4.25
Nick Castellanos - Tigers   2.86
Ted Giannoulus - Chicken   5.51!

Fill Ins:

Archie Bradley - D'Backs   .99
Ryley Gilliam - USA   2.51
Daniel Alvarez - Orioles    .99
Elvis Andrus - Rangers   .99
Braden Shipley - D'Backs   2.01
Tony LaRussa - A's   4.76!
Raimel Tapia - Rockies   1.29
Travis Shaw - Brewers   1.84
Adrian Gonzalez - Dodgers   .99
Elias Diaz - Pirates   1.88
Mac Williamson - Giants   2.26
Robbie Ray - D'Backs   2.26
Cole Hamels - Rangers   1.83
Joe Musgrove - Astros   3.61
Kevin Kiermaier - Rays   2.14
Aaron Altherr - Phillies   .99
Tyler Glasnow - Pirates   3.25

Total with shipping $82.18, just a little shy of the price of one box.

Keep in mind a few things. First, I researched on BreakNinja.com what cards each player had and only bid up to $1.26 for players with only base, $3.50 for players with relic/autos, and a little higher in some cases for guys like LaRussa, Musgrove, and Glasnow who I wouldn't mind having a hit from and see they have high probability of hitting. Also, look at some of the prices with ! after them. Those auctions I got into a bidding war and paid more than I wanted to. The same thing happened with Alan Trammell and Al Kaline who both went for double the price of one of their hits would retrieve on ebay. Also, the seller combines shipping for a one time payment of $2.99. I can tell you the package that arrived to my house cost 10X that to ship.

 Results:

I ended up with 7 hits instead of just 3 had I bought a box. I did not get the high dollar guys I wanted hits from but did pull quite a few prospects. There is some numbered stuff and variations in there too. Overall, I ended up better off than buying a box. I had some, though very little, but still some control over who the hits were. A full case offers 16 boxes per case. I saw a full rainbow of Otani come out. I wish Carter, Sano, Giannoulus or LaRussa would have hit for something to add to my PC but I did pretty well. Hobby Legends as always was terrific during the break, everything shipped super fast and safe, I have single box breaks I bought into the week before this one that haven't shipped yet, and they tossed in two packs of penny sleeves. Please, if you are wanting to try this method of chasing hits over buying boxes do your research. There is a reason I chose each player and paid certain amounts. I used BreakNinja and watched a few case breaks while taking notes before bidding. You don't want to bid up a player and then later find out they don't have any hits in the set. It is all chance. Over $30 of what I spent was only on 4 or 5 guys that I got no hits from in the entire case even though they have a ton of hits in the set. I could have just bought their cards on ebay for that price probably. While 2 auto/relic Musgrove cards for a $3.61 bid is a win, having not a single card to show for paying $13.50 for Joe Carter is painful or a Sano #'ed /199 and 16 base cards for $9.46.

Here is the haul:

I got 2 of these!

/99 pic borrowed from ebay as I gave the card to my brother

/199 pic borrowed from Ebay as I gave to my brother

/99

I got 2 of these /303

#'ed /49 I had to win a quick random for this against the idiot who paid way too much for Miggy.

/199

Blank Back variation.

/500

/199

And the base...

33 Fulmer

14 Ray

13 Andrus

8 Casty split with whoever had Cabrera. This is Nick's only card in the set.

13 Altherr

12 Chicken

16 Sano

29 Hamels, 17 variation

14 Shaw

43 Alomars, 12 say Robbie, 31 Say Roberto

If I Owned Donruss...

In my opinion Topps is getting a little big for it's britches. Putting out an insert set in 2018 depicting their own "print as needed" Topps Now best sellers is the last straw. Pat yourself on the back on your own time, don't waste a spot in my pack for a card of a card you suckered people into buying. I know how big of a deal licensing has become and many people don't give unlicensed product the time of day. I don't think that is the other companies faults 100% and they put out some great looking cards even without logos. Here are two moves I would make if I controlled Donruss to give the company a little shot in the arm and take a shot at Topps.

1. I would make up mock teams to fill in for the lack of licensing. The Detroit Kittens, Kansas City Princesses, New York Federals and Suburbans in the NL. I would create logos of these made up teams to fill in the blank spots until I got a license agreement. I would sell hats, jerseys and shirts of these fake teams too. This is probably illegal in a million ways so as soon as the lawsuits came flooding in like TTM requests in spring training, I would start selling ad spots where logos should be.

2. Topps likes to "celebrate" its own designs from the past every single year. This year the 1983 design is being shoved down our throats with so many variations its not even worth collecting, I just trade them for junk wax.
If I was Donruss I would make a set called Donruss Deja Vu. This set would use the design of the most overproduced, most nostalgic, and least valued set of all time: 1990 Donruss.
Instead of making countless numbered and variations I would reproduce the errors from the original set. Aaron Judge would have a reversed negative picture like the Juan Gonzalez card from '90. Justin Verlander would have a King of Kings diamond king card like Nolan Ryan with all the error variations. Garrett Cole's picture would be on Lance McCullers's card like the Glavine/Smoltz error from '90. The MVP cards and the Diamond Kings inserts would be there along with the Rated Rookie set. There would have to be a puzzle so I guess it should be....Jim Thome in an Indians uni.

International Man of Mystery: Carlos Guillen (Donruss Fail)

Will the real Carlos Guillen please stand up? I am not sure whether its because the Tigers were terrible in '05 or that all baseball players look the same to Donruss but neither of these gentlemen is Carlos Guillen. It happens probably more often than we realize, players pictured erroneously displayed as someone else. Unless you scrutinize every card you look at you may never find one. Somehow I came across two picture errors of the same player from the same year who is being passed as two different players. You can't make this stuff up. I like to think that Carlos Guillen had something better to do on picture day so Omar Infante and Alex Sanchez covered for him by posing as him. I almost took the card on the left to have Infante sign it but I wasn't sure if he would be insulted by Donruss dissing him or thinking I didn't know his name. Infante should be well known while having a decent career between Atlanta and Detroit and he performed well during Spring Training for the Tig's this year. Sanchez was just another player on the horrible early Comerica Park Tiger teams.

"You've got the wrong guy!"

I was the typical Tiger fan when it came to Guillen; loved him when he hit and dreaded hearing his name when he wasn't. Overall, I liked to watch him hit and it seemed to me he hit well when he used a two-toned bat compared to an all black one. I may have been the only one to notice that or I may have made it up in my head.